Oda, a seemingly indisputable success in the Norwegian startup scene has turned into a storm of unpredictable events and a dance of new leaders coming and going.
Like in a Greek tragedy, where the young hero is foretold of his fate but still cannot escape it, Oda’s downfall can be described in three acts: Hope, Hubris, and Chaos.
Act One: Hope
From the outset, Oda faced a significant challenge: the Norwegian grocery market makes life nearly impossible for newcomers. The supply side is controlled by very few players, distribution is concentrated in a few hands, and grocery stores are practically on every corner in major cities. This makes it difficult to calculate the price consumers are willing to pay for home delivery instead of stopping by a store on their way home.
The leadership and founders were fully aware of these obstacles from the start and fought to secure fairer purchasing terms among market players. The goal and hope were to pressure the major distributors into lowering prices enough to create room for competition.
The major changes never came. Hope was shattered.
Act Two: Hubris
A good startup does not give up without a fight. Oda had two strategic options: operational efficiency and scale through geographic expansion.
Oda had long claimed to have the most efficient logistics in the industry, with the lowest operational costs. Since improved purchasing terms did not materialize, the alternative was to compensate through exceptional operational efficiency.
The scale strategy, on the other hand, required rapid growth. In a world of near-zero interest rates and the tailwind of a pandemic, the company decided to hit the accelerator. Overnight, Oda became a discount grocery store, aiming to steal market share from the major players regardless. Growth was clearly critical to the company’s future.
Then came the dream of global dominance. In full alignment with the then-popular “blitzscaling” philosophy, the company embarked on an ambitious geographic expansion and a merger with Sweden’s Mathem. It later became clear that the company was not ready for such a strategy.
At the same time, consistent black figures remained elusive despite a pandemic that provided the company with optimal conditions.
Oda was running out of time but struggled to decide which strategic path to fully commit to. The consequences followed swiftly.
Act Three: Chaos
The pandemic eventually ended, and the U.S. Federal Reserve began rapidly raising interest rates.
Panic spread in the financial world. Capital dried up.
Like many other companies in a global economy characterized by low interest rates, abundant capital, and blitzscaling, Oda felt the impact immediately. Changes in the environment always bring strategic shifts, and they are rarely painless.
The Swedish merger failed, expansion in Germany and Finland was quickly halted. Now, the company had to pivot to profitability. CEO Karl Munthe-Kaas had to step down and was replaced by a corporate suit. The man held the position for barely a year. This often happens when executives from large, stable companies are brought in to fix startups in crisis.
The new CEO is André Knüppel. His strength lies in logistics, signaling a full focus on profitability. He will face strict demands from the board, a half-finished turnaround initiated by his predecessor, and high expectations from employees and founders who remember the golden days. The job will be tough, but with a clear focus on operational efficiency, Oda now has a real new chance.
Oda’s story is not unique, and there is much to learn from it. Many major ventures have faced the same fate, especially when money was essentially free, leading to widespread misallocation of capital.
Many entrepreneurs and investors lost their sense of financial discipline and “risk & reward” analysis. Strategic choices became almost a thing of the past. Everything could be solved with more money. Everything was about trying, failing, and pivoting. Cheerful slogans like “burn your business plan” flooded the internet, gathering hundreds of likes.
Far too many have experienced the same three acts that Oda has gone through. We are entering a world of geopolitical instability, more expensive capital, and reduced globalization. Investors and entrepreneurs must adapt to a harsher reality.
Let’s hope that Oda’s Greek tragedy will be the last.
This post was published first in Norwegian on Shifter.no